News Post From Kaigie Staff

Dr. Robert Colton On Current COVID-19 Situation
Kaigie staff - Dr. Robert Colton is my cousin, semi-retired endocrinologist and internal medicine in Boca Raton, FL. This is from a post on his Facebook page.

At the final debate this week. Trump said that 99% who contract Covid 19 get better. That means 1% die, and a lot more have long-standing or permanent disabilities. 1 % is a big number. Some comparisons: Seat belts save 14,000 lives per year or .004% of the population or 1 in 25,000 people per year. 300,000 people drive drunk each day, 30 die or 1 in 10,000. You would have to drive drunk 100 times to have a 1 % risk of dying. Any drug that had a 1% mortality rate would never make it past phase one. You get the point.
Many of you have seen the reports about masks- how if 95% of Americans wore masks, we could save 100,000 lives.
This goal is a pipedream. Only about 50% of Americans wear masks consistently outside of their homes. No point beating these people up. They are not changing, even with a mask mandate, no matter how misguided and selfish they are.
So Covid-19 is rampant and not going away right now.
A summary of important information:
1. Herd immunity without a vaccine is a stupid idea. Less than 10% of the populace has antibodies right now. Most experts believe we need to get to 60% with immunity before the disease begins to die out. If 8% of the population is currently immune, 8 times more will get infected before we reach herd immunity- deaths will easily exceed 1 million.
2. Even though much of the population is ignoring the guidelines, you obviously still can reduce your own risk by masking, distancing, handwashing/sanitizers, and avoiding super-spreader situations. Indoor restaurant dining doubles your risk over a 14-day period. Commercial flying, if everyone is wearing masks, appears to be safer
3. Risk is relative. We all have friends who have flouted every guideline since day one and are fine. It’s like drunk driving or smoking: absolute risk goes up over time.
4. Mortality rates are dropping due to better hospital treatment, steroids in severe cases, and maybe Remdesivir. Monoclonal antibodies hold real promise and are still being studied. This is what Trump received. Many different ones are being developed. It will most certainly replace convalescent plasma.
5. Testing is getting better, faster, and eventually cheaper. Rapid point of care tests are here with results in as little as 15 minutes. Imagine going to a wedding or other social event where everyone gets a rapid test as they walk in with a 97% sensitivity. That would mean you have a 33 times lower risk of being exposed to the virus and likely an even lower risk of being exposed to someone with a high viral load. Could be a game changer. I wouldn’t go to a party right now. If everyone was tested on the way in. I would.
6. Vaccines are coming but most experts believe they will offer only partial immunity, like the flu shot, not the measles shot. We might need more than one shot. Younger and healthier people will have a more robust response to the vaccine, but the initial vaccines will likely go to health care workers and the most vulnerable elderly. Because of production and distribution roadblocks, some estimate younger people might not get vaccinated until 2022. Also, millions of people might refuse to get the vaccine.
Please be careful. Don’t let your guard down. Wear a mask.
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